Poised to become a world power

India, the subcontinent of contradictions, can be seen as a challenge and an opportunity at the same time. Its rapid economic and population growth are creating new goods and services, but also a huge demand for energy. Meeting growing mobility requirements and the desire for social advancement will be of crucial importance for the development of this still deeply divided society. BY DR. OLAF IHLAU

At the stroke of the midnight hour, when the world sleeps, India will awake to life and freedom” declared Jawaharlal Nehru to his young nation from the halls of Parliament on the evening of August 14, 1947, when India gained its sovereignty following over 150 years of British colonial rule. The founder of modern India spoke of “dreams” that would be of significance not only for India, but “also for the world”.

Sixty years on, the world has woken up to the at times bewildering reality that the subcontinent has brought forth a colossus that will be instrumental in shaping world history. This has nothing to do with the hype about India that appears every now and then. Today, India should rather be seen as a new global player – in both economic and political terms – an active player in the world of tomorrow, competing for jobs, markets and resources. However, India also opens up new production and sales opportunities for German and other European companies. 

Europeans in particular will have to come to terms with the fact that India, since it is based on a stable democratic society, will be the main contender to the long-term supremacy of the West. In the new global order, India – together with China, the other Asian mega-society – will not only help to determine the pace of modernization, but, as a major driving force behind the global economy, it will soon also draw on most of the world’s available sources of energy and raw materials.

A PICTURE FULL OF SYMBOLISM Tradition, nature and modernity, old and new influences – all of these are seeking a balance that benefits people in 21st century India.

THE ELEPHANT IS GAINING ON THE DRAGON

When it gained independence in 1947, India had a population of just under 350 million people. Today, its inhabitants number over 1.1 billion, and half of them are younger than 25. Soon the second largest nation on Earth will be the largest. This is because, in the race between the two Asian giants that together account for almost 40 percent of the world’s population, the elephant is gaining on the dragon. According to the latest estimates, China will be overtaken by 2034, when India’s population reaches the 1.46 billion mark. By the middle of the century, Asia as a whole will make up 70 percent of the world’s population.

These are awe-inspiring prospects, particularly from a European perspective. However, these predictions may well spell trouble, not least for India itself, which could face disastrous social problems if not enough work can be found for the multitudes. 

BETWEEN ILLITERACY AND SCIENCE

The vast tracts of land are still the heart of ancient, agricultural, unchanging India. As before, almost 70 percent of the workforce is employed in the agricultural sector. Nonetheless, the driving force of the new India and its colossal boom are the conurbations centered on 35 cities, each with over a million inhabitants. Here, a well-heeled middle class – some 250 million people with ample purchasing power – are triggering an as yet unheard of level of consumption. For 30 years, the giant was constrained by the shackles of a planned economy, making do with the “Hindu rate of growth” of 3.5 percent per annum. With the reforms introduced in the early 1990s came a radical shift towards the market economy. Fueled primarily by domestic demand, economic growth doubled and is now heading for a breathtaking ten percent. Many economists predict that India will rocket past Japan and Germany to join the USA and China in the next 15 years, its hypergrowth maybe even taking it right to the top of the economic table. In a historical context, this development can be compared with the industrial advancement of the German Reich at the end of the 19th century, taking over from Great Britain as Europe’s leading economic power.

India’s awakening comes as quite a surprise to many, as it was still seen until quite recently as the poorhouse of the world, notable for having the largest number of illiterates. Indeed, the problem of illiteracy is still an acute one, with over a third of the adult population and more than half of all women unable to read and write. The other side of the coin, however, is that India has the second largest reservoir of engineers and scientists in the world, and more computer specialists than any other country bar the USA. India leads the world in information technology, above all in its laboratories in Bangalore – Asia’s own Silicon Valley.

Nowhere, not even in California, are more IT specialists and engineers to be found. And no other economic sector can boast such impressive growth rates. 

The next step in the Indian high-tech offensive for a knowledge-based economy involves the construction of new biotechnology and gene technology research facilities. As well as this, a labor-intensive export industry will be developed with a view to offering the millions of unskilled workers employment in traditional fields of industry. Over 60 million new jobs will be needed by 2010 alone. Most of these are likely to come about through the renewal of ailing streets, railroads, airports, power plants and irrigation systems. The government in Delhi intends to invest 440 billion US dollars in the country’s infrastructure.

The outlook for India has never been as good as it is today: the country is at peace with its neighbors, well on its way to the top of the globalized economy and is being courted by the rest of the world. “Our challenges lie at home”, says current Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who dreams that the 21st century will be “the Indian century”. Yes, it is difficult to slow down the elephant once it has finally started moving.