Development scenarios for the future

For almost 20 years, renewable energies have been experiencing an enormous upward trend – not just in Germany. Besides the European Union (EU), the German federal government and the German states, major companies are also actively involved in efforts to achieve sustainable power supplies. Volkswagen is using its influence above all in the research and development of second-generation biological fuels. The EU has set very high targets. By the year 2020, the proportion of renewable energy used, measured in terms of primary energy consumption, should be increased to twenty percent. In the transport sector, 10% of fossil fuels are to be replaced by renewable energy sources, whereby second-generation biological fuels are actually counted double. A further benefit of these biogenic fuels is the fact that they are extremely efficient in helping to reduce imports of fossil energy sources.

Exclusion of cultivation competition
In recent years, the production of biomass for generating electricity, heat and fuel has become increasingly important for the agricultural sector. Apart from the already well established cultivation of rapeseed for the production of biodiesel, initial concepts have been presented for BtL production facilities. Regional biomass production must however satisfy particular crop farming and economical requirements. There is a recurring competition between using agricultural areas for cultivating energy crops and for cultivating food crops. To counter this indirect competition, energy crops need to be cultivated that yield a high return per hectare. Here, SunFuel® plays an outstanding role compared to other biological fuels. This is not produced using just certain parts of the plants, but rather using the entire plant and even plant waste materials.

SunFuel® - the fuel
For ten years, Volkswagen has been pursuing a fuel strategy that aims at increasing the use of CO2-neutral biomass. What is so special about biological fuels is that the carbon dioxide created during combustion is first drawn from the air by the plants. This means that the level of climate-killing CO2 in the atmosphere is not increased any further. And this technology puts the solar energy that the plant uses to grow into the tank – thus the name of this synthetic fuel: SunFuel®. A further effect is the fact that the use of biomass as a primary energy source opens up a completely new income perspective for the agricultural sector – and the chance to overcome the challenges facing the agricultural industry in the enlarged EU. But the production of such biological fuels is not completely without risk. It is the task of SUNREG to assess and appraise these risks.

"Biomass for SunFuel®" and SUNREG
In 2003, the Germany states of Lower Saxony, Brandenburg and Hessen teamed up with Volkswagen to found the research cooperation "Biomass for SunFuel". Aim and purpose of this research cooperation between the German states and Volkswagen is to gather new information about the development and introduction of a technology for synthetically manufacturing fuel from biomass. The aim is to develop a biomass infrastructure and so to create a basis for the production of biogenic fuels (SunFuel®).

One of the most important projects within the cooperation is the interdisciplinary project SUNREG. Its importance led the results of the first phase of SUNREG to be presented to experts from the fields of politics and agriculture in the Lower Saxony Ministry of Agriculture in December. Various researchers and scientists had taken on the task of developing a model for depicting agricultural biomass production at a variety of locations. Such a model should illustrate scenarios that make detailed modelling of individual biomass flows possible. This does not only allow the regional production situation (status quo) to be reflected. Development scenarios for the future can also be simulated. These can provide information to the agricultural advisory institutions for their advisory activities with farmers regarding their biomass production portfolios.

To this end, the Lower Saxony Chamber of Agriculture (LWK) has compiled a data base for agricultural operators from different regions. This formed the basis upon which the Leibnitz Institute for Agricultural Technology in Potsdam-Bornim (ATB) developed a mathematical model for calculating biomass potential. This innovative model allows effects and changes caused by implementing the current EU agricultural reform resolutions, the German Renewal Energies Act (EEG), and by other political and global changes, to be taken into account in the calculations. Besides the data collection, the LWK has also conducted intensive trials with energy crop cultivation. In this way, the scientists hope to gain new insight into the yield potential of known and of new crops.

Job security through biomass production
The SUNREG research cooperation enjoys a very high degree of significance. The German states involved expect the results to yield added value and job security for their agricultural and forestry sectors. And for Volkswagen, the main aim is to implement its own fuel strategy so that such questions can be sustainably and intensively examined.

Objectives of SUNREG I project
With the results of the SUNREG study, another step has been taken towards the economic production of BtL (biomass-to-liquid) fuels and SunFuel® based on raw materials originating in agriculture and forestry. The newly developed model allows the examination and evaluation of scenarios to be used to derive regional strategies for the development of so-called biomass markets. Operators of such facilities and their investors are thus given a reliable planning basis, enabling them to assess the feasibility of their projects and their investment risk with greater reliability.

Structure of the study
The simulation of agricultural production was conducted on the basis of four different model regions, each of which has its own special characteristics with respect to soil quality, type of farming and production structures. Three of these model regions can be found in Lower Saxony. The first model region is located in the Hildesheim/Braunschweig Börde and represents a high-yield region characterised by high levels of arable farming and no significant livestock farming. Region 2 is in the area of Soltau-Fallingbostel and represents locations characterised by light, sandy soil. The dominant forms of agriculture to be found here are mixed farms with moderately intensive livestock farming. The third area investigated is located in the Emsland region and is dominated by intensive livestock farming.
The fourth model region to be selected was the Havelland area of the state of Brandenburg, which is characterised by low-nutrient, sandy soil with large-scale mixed farms.
For all four regions, extensive data was collected in two stages, taking account of numerous regional and commercial factors. This was then fed into the mathematical model derived by the ATB in a third step.

In the next step, various scenarios were developed and simulated with the different focuses "Rising energy costs", "Further expansion of biological energy" and "Inflationary price development for food and agricultural products ".

The results of the individual subprojects can be found in part two.

A summary of all results from the research cooperation can be found in the following final report (only german).