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  3. Strategy
  4. Outlook

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Outlook

The Volks­wagen Group’s Board of Management expects the global economy to record slightly higher growth in 2017 than in the previous year. We believe risks will arise from protec­tionist tendencies, turbulence in the financial markets and structural deficits in individual countries. In addition, growth prospects will continue to be hurt by geopolitical tensions and conflicts. We expect the economic upturn to continue in the large majority of industrialized nations, with stable rates of expansion overall. Most emerging markets will probably see faster growth than in the previous year. We expect the strongest rates of expansion in Asia’s emerging economies.

We expect trends in the passenger car markets in the individual regions to be mixed in 2017. Overall, growth in global demand for new vehicles will probably be slower than in 2016. We anticipate that sales volume in Western Europe and the German passenger car market will be slightly higher than in the previous year. In the Central and Eastern Euro­pean markets, demand for passenger cars should exceed the weak prior-year figure. We expect that the market volume for pas­senger cars and light commercial vehicles (up to 6.35 tonnes) in North America in 2017 will be a little lower than the prior-year figure. On the South American market for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, overall demand is expected to rise significantly compared with the previous year. The passenger car markets in the Asia-Pacific region look set to continue their growth trajectory at a slightly weaker pace.

We expect trends in the markets for light commercial vehicles in the individual regions to be mixed again in 2017. Overall, we envisage a slight increase in demand.

In the markets for mid-sized and heavy trucks that are relevant for the Volks­wagen Group and in the relevant markets for buses, new registrations in 2017 are set to rise moderately above the prior-year level.

We believe that automotive financial services will con­tinue to be very important for vehicle sales worldwide in 2017.

The Volks­wagen Group is well positioned to deal with the mixed developments in automotive markets around the world. Our broad, selectively expanded product range fea­turing the latest generation of engines as well as a variety of alternative drives puts us in a good position globally com­pared with our competitors. The Group’s further strengths include in particular its unique brand portfolio, its steadily growing presence in all major world markets and its wide selection of financial services. Our range of models covers almost all key segments, with offerings from small cars to super sports cars in the passenger car segment, and from pickups to heavy trucks and buses in the commercial vehicles segment, as well as motorcycles. The Volks­wagen Group brands will further optimize their vehicle and drivetrain portfolio in 2017 to concentrate on the most attractive and fastest-growing market segments.

Our goal is to offer all customers the mobility and inno­vations they need, sustainably strengthening our competitive position in the process.

We expect that deliveries to customers of the Volks­wagen Group in 2017 will moderately exceed the prior-year volume amid persistently challenging market conditions.

Challenges will arise particularly from the economic situation, intense competition in the market, exchange rate volatility and the diesel issue.

We expect the sales revenues of the Volkswagen Group and of the Passenger Cars Business Area and Commercial Vehicles Business Area to grow by more than 4% year-on-year in 2017. In terms of the Group’s operating profit before special items, we estimate that the operating return on sales in 2017 will moderately exceed the original forecast range of between 6.0% and 7.0%. Also in the Passenger Cars Business Area, we expect to see an operating return on sales before special items moderately above the original target range of 6.5% – 7.5%. For the Commercial Vehicles Business Area, we anticipate an operating return on sales moderately above the initially envisaged range of between 3.0% and 5.0%. In the Power Engineering Business Area, we expect a significant year-on-year decline in sales revenue but also a lower operating loss. For the Financial Services Division, we are forecasting noticeably higher sales revenue and operating profit than in the previous year.

After deduction of special items, we anticipate an operat-ing return on sales that is at the lower end of the expected target range for the Group and marginally below the antici­pated corridor for the Passenger Cars Business Area.  

Status: October 27, 2017