Powertrain Strategy as an Opportunity

An interview with Dr. Wolfgang Steiger (52), who has been Director of Group Research Powertrain for Volkswagen AG for the past ten years. An engineer by training, Steiger sums up the three main fields of his research activities at the Group as reducing emissions, cutting back CO2 and conserving energy and resources. As a visiting lecturer at the Coburg University of Applied Sciences he is also involved in the academic side of the debate on these issues.

Dr. Steiger, we hear a lot about the need to create a sustainable mobile society. How would that actually be achievable?
We can divide this up into different technology horizons and timeframes. We have to ask what will come today and what will only be achievable tomorrow or in the longer-term future? The first task, which we are addressing today, is to improve internal combustion engine technology by exploiting the development potential it still holds. There will be no revolution that transforms the market overnight. Rather, the advent of new technologies will be a gradual, evolutionary process. In general terms, we expect to see increasing electrification of the powertrain, as a way of extending the capabilities of the internal combustion engine.

And of course, sustainable mobility also extends to aspects such as vehicle safety, although of course no one can ever guarantee 100 percent safety.  That said, we have reached a very high level, thanks not least to electronic assistants that support drivers in critical situations that exceed their capabilities. As our accident research shows, this will lead to further advances.

We also need sensible and intelligent traffic management as traffic densities continue to increase. We must endeavour to optimise traffic flows – an area in which there is still plenty of room for improvement. In this respect, car-to-car communications, whereby vehicles can exchange information, will bring substantial progress.

How important are the Volkswagen BlueMotion models and the Audi ‘e’-models in this context?
We must achieve fleet-wide progress, rather than isolated improvements on fuel consumption and emissions, and we're currently hard at work on this. The BlueMotion series is the logical consequence of our experience with the "3-litre" Lupo. With that model we were trying to break records – and we then discovered that customers weren't willing to accept the higher prices this entailed. So now we are combining greater technical efficiency with cost efficiency by taking low-cost fuel-saving solutions and incorporating them into existing models. And we find that customers are willing to pay the – limited – premium that this involves. That leads to much bigger benefits in terms of overall fleet consumption and emissions. A reduction across a whole fleet leads to far greater savings than a major reduction in just a few vehicles.

Fleet consumption is also the focus of the Voluntary Commitment of the European Automobile Manufacturer’s Association ACEA. Will Volkswagen meet its obligations in this respect?
We have already made substantial improvements in fuel-efficiency, although these have been counteracted by a number of factors. First of all, sales volumes within the overall range have shifted since the reference year. As in the USA, our customers now tend to buy bigger and heavier cars, and we have to build cars for the market and not for public policy-makers.

Secondly, and this is a point rarely raised, we are being driven by the public policy-makers to ever-greater vehicle safety, which calls for stiffer chassis, impact mitigation measures, crumple zones, and so on.  Today we have the same number of road traffic fatalities as in 1950, when not even one tenth of the number of cars were on the roads. All the safety measures that have been built into the vehicles counteract our efforts to reduce CO2 emissions.

In specific terms, powertrains are today far better. If we installed a current 2-litre diesel engine in a Golf 1, we would have a car that can cover 100 km on three litres of fuel. So we have made substantial improvements in efficiency. 

With reference to the Voluntary Commitment, in my opinion in 2007 we are still within the target corridor, but trend analysis reveals that in 2008 and 2009 we will drift out of that corridor. It’s not easy, because in principle what we need is a shift in customer behaviour. For our part, we are constantly offering more and more vehicles that achieve emissions of less than 120 and 140 grams of CO2 per kilometre.

What does your global vision of sustainable mobility look like?
There are different trends in this respect: on the one hand we have the formation of megacities – gigantic conurbations. Current predictions forecast that in 80 years’ time, 50 percent of humanity will be living in such conurbations. So we need to look beyond Europe. Today, unlike big cities in Europe, these megacities have a major problem in terms of air quality and traffic density. That means we need smaller and completely clean vehicles, and we have to reckon with lots of short trips and stop-and-go traffic.

Globally, we must tackle three main objectives: firstly, we must reduce pollutant emissions; secondly, we must find carbon-neutral mobility solutions and thirdly, we must achieve significant improvements in efficiency. We are pursuing an increase in efficiency from well-to-wheel, and here we consider electric drive the most efficient kind of propulsion. On short urban trips, the overall energy balance-sheet of an electric motor is substantially better than that of an internal combustion engine; and better than that of a fuel cell, incidentally.

So on the one hand, in megacities and large urban centres we have a demand for predominantly short-distance mobility with maximum daily distances of 200 kilometres. Here we anticipate a significant increase in the use of electric drive. In the long term we expect to meet the needs of almost 80 percent of potential customers in this way. Due to the shorter distances, this type of operation will account for approximately half of total energy consumption, with predominantly long-distance operation accounting for the other half. Here we see no alternative to internal combustion engines, and that is likely to remain the case for the next twenty, thirty or forty years.

We are also convinced that, in future, our customers will tend to want vehicles that are more closely geared to their personal mobility needs. And then, for the few exceptional situations in life, they will overcome their initial misgivings and hire a suitable vehicle, take one from the car pool, or take advantage of whatever kinds of mobility system have taken shape by then. We haven’t reached that point yet; it will above all take a change of mindset among customers. Today people tend to buy vehicles that, ideally, will suit any purpose.

You mentioned electric drive. What part do you expect hybrid vehicles to play?
This is an area in which we can expect to see progress. Starting from a relatively modest level, a steadily increasing proportion of motive power will in future be supplied electrically. Sooner or later, a large proportion of engines will be equipped with electric starter/generator systems. Such systems allow the power supplied by the internal combustion engine to be systematically supplemented. This makes sense, because combustion systems are becoming more and more complex and thus increasingly difficult to control under dynamically changing operating conditions. An electric motor in a supporting role can make a real contribution to improving emissions and fuel consumption.

The next step, in the medium term, will be "genuine" hybridisation. Hybridisation will happen fastest where it makes most sense. The pros and cons must be weighed up carefully: hybrid drive makes sense for short-distance operation but not for long distances, where the negative factors like weight and costs have more of an impact, while the positive effect from better energy management in the powertrain is lost. So hybrids cannot be regarded as a final solution, but as one step on the way to an even higher level of electrification.

A point will eventually be reached when the electrical component of the full-hybrid powertrain becomes the dominant partner and the internal combustion engine is relegated to the role of "assistant". Since the pace of electrification will depend very much on the pace of progress in battery technology, one of our research priorities is to press ahead with developing battery technology and to find out how far we can go with this approach to electrification.

When, realistically, do you expect these electric vehicles to be ready?
This too will be a gradual process. We will forge ahead with electrification step by step, while at the same time fostering new technologies. Along with a high-performance battery for hybrid systems we are also seeking an energy storage medium for pure electric drive. We know that lithium-ion technology in its current form will not do the job. What we need here is what you might call a major breakthrough.

Consequently, our researchers are working to find a new approach to battery technology in the course of the next two years. This involves global screening of all the available technologies, consulting hundreds of specialists and continuous scouting of all possible approaches. When we do find a suitable approach, obviously the new technology then has to be industrialised, so we're talking of easily ten years.

What place will alternative fuels have in this scenario?
As I already indicated, there will be two different paths in powertrain development. The first will be closely focused on and led by battery technology. The second will involve new fuels and, as part of that, optimised combustion process design. The fuel and the engine design need to be closely integrated. That's why we believe we will definitely see a second generation of alternative fuels and biofuels. In the medium or long term these fuels will then replace the first generation.

And we are the only player in the automotive sector that is willing to make a direct commitment to this topic. We have conducted feasibility studies; we will be investing several million euros in Iogen and Choren and taking a stake in order to have a say in the construction of the initial production plants. We are making a clear commitment to driving forward this second generation of biofuels, and in this we are focusing on the only technologies that are both available and ready for market.

Your competitors expect biofuels to have a market share of only ten to 20 percent by 2020. What's your view?
We are more optimistic in this respect, otherwise we would not have made such a strong commitment. Direct estimates indicate a potential of between 20 and 25 percent. This is backed up by a number of studies we are jointly carrying out with the Agriculture Ministries of Brandenburg, Lower Saxony and Hesse, and also by a forecast of the overall European potential. That said, the production plants still have to be built and the agricultural sector needs to provide the necessary crops. This is entirely possible, because it will only take fifteen percent of the total area, and ten percent is already lying fallow. The important thing here is to liaise with the public policy-makers, who need to provide a regulatory environment that will ensure production facilities for biofuels remain cost-effective to operate over the long term.

We also see huge opportunities in energy crop development. Looking at everything that's going on at the moment in crop development – for example, using cultivation methods only, KWS Saat AG has managed to double the mass productivity of maize grown as an energy crop – we believe the potential is set to increase significantly.

Many people dream of a CO2-free, hydrogen-based society. When will we see the first hydrogen-powered production car from the Volkswagen Group?
It took us approximately six years of basic research on fuel cell membranes before we reached a breakthrough, with a high-temperature PEM fuel cell based on a concept significantly better than anyone else had come up with. We also carried out successful performance verifications, something which nobody else has done so far. For the rest, things will now proceed in short order: we will be presenting 80-kilowatt systems, fitting them in vehicles and carrying out demonstration projects.

That said, the first genuine hydrogen-powered fuel cell vehicle, when it arrives some time around 2020, will be a battery-powered vehicle with a range extender. The battery will be recharged by an on-board fuel cell. This would still be emission-free and would efficiently convert the hydrogen on board into electrical energy – but the vehicle would have electric propulsion because, in this vision, fuel cell drive would still work out five times as expensive as a battery. That is why the battery will always be responsible for providing more output than the fuel cell.

In overall energy efficiency terms, fuel cells will be competing with battery technology. If the hydrogen is produced regeneratively with no CO2 emissions, the electric vehicle with fuel cell would have clear advantages. Carburetion processes enable better values to be achieved. But things could still go either way. A lot will depend on the efficiency of the overall fuel cell system, which is still in need of improvement.
 
What do you expect from the policy-makers as far as sustainable mobility is concerned?
One crucial aspect is that if we are to achieve sustainable mobility we must involve other parties outside the automobile industry. To create genuinely sustainable mobility systems, the other stakeholders too must be brought on-board – the oil companies, the agriculture sector (for the biofuels) and the public policy-makers (to provide the regulatory framework for these new mobility systems). Then there has to be discussion, cooperation and agreement on a goal. A great deal has been achieved in this respect over the last two or three years and there is a lot more willingness to cooperate now.

There are basically two things we would ask of the policy-makers: first they should keep out of the technology debate. They should avoid giving preference to one particular technology and should avoid interfering in the healthy competition between different options. At the same time customers must be told that CO2 is a problem and we must do everything we can to reduce it. Secondly, the policy-makers have to provide the right regulatory framework, for example with a CO2-based fuel tax and a CO2-based vehicle tax. In other words, taxation would be based on efficiency categories, but there must be no political meddling in the technology itself. My conviction is that the politicians should let competition and the evolution of the different technologies follow their natural course.

Dr. Steiger, thank you for talking to us.